which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis

Perier stopped and measured the barometer from time to time as he scaled the mountain, with results that were widely taken as impressive proof of Torricellis hypothesis. To put it more generally, to say that an explanation or an outcome is unfalsifiable is to say that any observation at all is consistent with the explanation. WebA hypothesis is a potential answer to the question, one that can somehow be tested. C. It's Would it require the world to function in mysterious ways or in ways that differ dramatically from the ways that are well established by science? General explanation. Halleys job would have been much easier if, instead of predicting a comet precisely in December 1758, he had made the following vague prediction: At least one comet will appear somewhere in the sky at some time in the future. The lights in this old house keep flickering. Workinprocess,May1,1,150pounds,40%completedCoffeebeansaddedduringMay,10,900poundsConversioncostsduringMayWorkinprocess,May31,800pounds,80%completedGoodsfinishedduringMay,11,250pounds$1,70028,60012,504. Find three images of sound in the poem and three instances of silence. The more surprising the outcome would be, the lower the prior probability and the stronger the logic of the argument. An explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data. Learn more about how Pressbooks supports open publishing practices. For any explanation you can ask whether it makes sensethat is, whether there is an adequate conceptual framework to account for the causal mechanisms required by the explanation. According to William James, the purpose of psychology was to ________. [3], This can be a powerful evaluative tool. This supports which theory of aggression? Psychology is a social science discipline. It is easy to invent a convenient explanation for data you already have, but then to disregard failure to fully satisfy the total evidence condition. Note: See Section 6. A proposed explanation for observed phenomena. Astrology is reliable. B. applying a set of skills to understand and evaluate information. Concrete, according to the campus architect, was poured whenever the schedule required and the necessary materials were available. A scientific theory is supported by testable and reproducible data. Develop an action plan. We do know, however, that deception of this sort happensthat there are entertainers who work very hard at producing illusions like this, and they can make a lot of honest money at it. Consider the alternative that someone has accidentally dialed a wrong number, only to hang up when hearing an unfamiliar voice on the other end. Gilbert Harman is associated with the phrase. Why do scientists refer to Charles Darwin's ideas about evolution as the theory of evolution? For singular explanations, the simplest one normally offers the fewest explanatory entities. Individuals have an innate predisposition to be aggressive, which builds up and eventually must be expressed. The scolding and praise are no better than a fifth wheel in the argument, since the outcome is highly probable anyway. As with the outcome, the concern here is also with prior epistemic probabilityin this case, the probability that you would assess to the explanation prior to your making any judgment about the observable outcome. Write an expression for the general or nth term, an,a_{n},an, for the geometric sequence. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. Is the frequently observed, poorly understood, phenomenon that people tend to respond favorably to any treatment. The funds that fail are closed, and the manager of the one that succeeds is advertised widely. Second, its explicit premisethis water boiled quicklyis the observable outcome of the explanation. Then state whether it is general or singular and whether the explanation or the observable outcome came first. b. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. MIUs architect had said only that the decision to pour concrete was based on the construction schedule and the availability of certain materials. Although there is no formula for deciding on the improbability of the outcome, there are some helpful strategies that you can follow in making your decision. Write a paragraph explaining your point of view. An explanatory hypothesis is a type of hypothesis which is used to test the cause and effect relationship between two or more than two variables. Because the ideas of creationism cannot be tested through experiment and observation. Another contemporary of his, French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal, suspected that Torricelli was right but that a greater altitude was required to prove it. Sample exercise. If the answer is yes, then the argument is at least moderately strong (assuming it has not failed the first part of the total evidence condition). For general explanations, a good way to check for simplicity is to ask whether the explanation predicts the smoothest possible curve.In the 17th century, the Italian mathematician Torricelli hypothesized that the Earth was surrounded by a sea of air, which decreased in pressure uniformly as the altitude increased. Those desperate to discredit a good explanatory argument might misuse this guideline. 6) Evolutionary adaptation leading to descent with modification over time. b. along a continuum b. athletes view aggressive acts as more appropriate in society than in the sport environment If the butler regularly handled the candlestick anyway, then his fingerprints on it would not point to him as the murderer. Abbys explanation is that the wife is having an affair; the observable outcome is that the pipe unexpectedly appears and then mysteriously disappears. Suppose the prior probability that the butler did it was .10, likewise for the chambermaid. d. a and b d. Frustration produces physical but not psychological aggression. Step 4. WebIntrospection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. When you cannot think of another explanation, it can be tempting to accept an explanatory argument even when the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. Statistics are used by scientists mainly to determine: Whether differences in results between control and treatment groups is significant and important. An argument whose correct form, assuming that P is the explanation and Q is the observable outcome, is this: An explanation that can apply to a wide range of observable outcomes. This disregard for weather extended even to the pouring of concrete. d. all of the above This is a way of emphasizing the importance of an improbable outcome. Oona should conduct research in the area of ________ psychology. Newtons account of celestial mechanics is correct and applies to the motion of comets. If I were trying to give you a better causal understanding of it, you would probably expect me to tell you something about the chain of eventsthe family history or career decisionsthat led him to Illinois. a. I know of some people with cancer who smoke. 5) Growth, development, and reproduction. d. The leading alternative explanation is that the manager has succeeded by sheer luck. Bring it all together by fully clarifying and evaluating the explanatory arguments in each of these passages. b. punching an umpire because he made a bad call, "Good aggression" (playing within the rules with high intensity) is known in sport psychology as, Instrumental aggression is aggression occurring, b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal, A linebacker intends to hurt and injure any receiver who catches a ball over the middle. From what Ive told you, what conclusions would you draw? Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. Science85. Researchers found that during a three-year period, the percentage of tickets, compared to simple warnings, was considerably higher during the night shift: more than 71 percent of the drivers stopped at night got tickets, compared with 58 percent of those stopped during the day (the others got warnings). At the end of the summer term, the teachers at a New England school were informed that certain children had been identified as spurters who could be expected to do well over the coming months. This makes good sense. D. It excludes the presumption of Which aspect of the scientific method occurs first? Functionalist psychologists focus on the function of behavior and ________. Favor outcomes that would falsify alternative explanations. The independent variable is manipulated to cause-effect on the dependent variable and the dependent variable is measured to examine the effect A theory with great explanatory power makes few assumptions, has significant predictive power and helps to reduce uncertainty in a precise and accurate way. The sentence Newtons account of celestial mechanics is correct . c. Small-scale, on-the-field aggressive acts serve as triggers for crowd aggression. Abbys argument remains moderately strong. General explanationsNewtonian celestial mechanics, for exampleare intended to apply broadly; Newtons theories explain the motion of all heavenly bodies at all times. In some cases, it can be tempting to accept an explanation with an extremely low prior probability simply because you cannot think of any plausible alternative. A comet with an orbit similar to the 1530 and 1606 comets did appear in December 1758. ________ is a perspective within psychology that emphasizes the potential for good that is innate to all humans, proposing a hierarchy of human needs in motivating behavior. Do not worry for now whether the observable outcome What distinction (if any) is there between a scientific theory and a conceptual one that might lead you to disagree with this argument? Prepare a cost of production report, using the average cost method. So the outcome probably would be true even if the gods explanation were false, and the argument is logically extremely weak. If you were to design an experiment to test whether a particular pathogen caused a disease, which of the following choices would be the first step and which the last step you would make if you followed the scientific method precisely? For each of the arguments below, offer an alternative explanation that already exists, which thus renders the outcome probable and the argument logically weak. d. fans become more aggressive under the influence of alcohol WebA hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. e. none of the above, b. behavior directed toward the goal of harming a person who is motivated to avoid such treatment, Smith's research concerning violence in hockey showed that Average people will harm others if told to do so by an authority figure. MIU had practiced TM on eight nonconsecutive days, without a miss, when the preceding days forecast predicted mild or continuing mild weather. Doing the math for five years, we find that the prior probability of the coincidence explanation is about .03that is, about 1 in 30 could be expected to have this kind of success just by chance. Nevertheless, we clarify and evaluate the argument just like the comet argument. First American psychologist. Now its been discovered that the icebergs are broken pieces of huge ice shelves that are hundreds of years old, according to a study reported in the, Death and disaster provide a convincing argument that, contrary to the persistent notion, women are not the weaker sex. This interlocks with the test, under the preceding improbable-outcome criterion, of asking whether an explanation for the outcome already exists. Your first thought would probably be that this supports the explanation that we are sometimes able to see into the future via our dreams. Pete McG. Simplicity can be a significant contributor to the probability of an explanation. This argument would have the same form as the first one, differing only in the nature of the observable outcome. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. Unlike the case of Halleys comet, the observable outcomesa blue anchor on his hand, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, an air of commandare where the reasoning begins. WebA hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. A later investigation showed that there was indeed a correlation between TM and warmer weather, but an even stronger correlation between TM and the preceding afternoons forecast of warmer weather for the next day. For instance, of 15 Donner Party members who attempted to snowshoe out in late December, all five women survived while eight of the ten men died. C. If vitamin C helps prevent colds, then when I take a lot of vitamin C I get fewer colds than normal. e. a and c, Which of the following is not an explanation put forth to explain athletes' aggressive behavior? It is freeloading; so it deserves no credit when the outcome comes true. The explanation must be sufficiently probable. c. with the intent to harm psychologically. C. It's Who was the first person referred to as a psychologist? So, not only is the prior probability of magic negligible, but it is far lower than that of the leading alternative, illusion. Before experimental drugs can be brought to market, they must undergo many rigorous trials to ensure they deliver their medical benefits effectively and safely. One good way to check for simplicitya way typically more useful with singular than with general explanationsis to ask whether the explanation offers only as many explanatory entities as needed. 16. One variable is manipulated, while others are held constant. Sample answer. For each of the passages below, (i)state the observable outcome and (ii)offer a different observable outcome that would rule out alternative explanations and lower its probability, thus making the argument logically stronger. a. assertive behavior. Wilhelm Wundt, Sigmund Freud, Noam Chomsky. Which of the following exemplifies the empirical method? Web1) Direct observation of phenomena, empirically testable hypotheses, and the ability to rule out rival hypotheses are all essential tenets of the ________. To illustrate this bias, suppose I tell you that I have in mind a set of numbers that includes the numbers 2, 4, and 6, and I then ask you to guess what set of numbers I am thinking of. c. athletes have higher moral development than nonathletes As with the first part, there are various ways of testing for this. e. none of the above. The train of reasoning ran, Here is a gentleman of a medical type, but with the air of a military man. What is the number one occupation employing graduates with a BA in psychology? The point is that, other things being equal, simple explanations, like frequently occurring and nonmysterious explanations, have a higher prior probability. Explanation: Astrology is reliable. No one would have expected a comet in December 1758 unless they were assuming the Newtonian explanation; such an event would have been extremely improbable. Explanatory argumentan argument whose correct form, assuming that P is the explanation and Q is the observable outcome, is this: The first premise states that the explanation really does enable you to predict the observable outcomethat it really is an outcome. Even across the street I could see a great blue anchor tattooed on the back of the fellows hand. WebQuestion: Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Which of the following statements is CORRECT? I thought it was the wind blowing up the canyon, like it does, you know, except it was real still. But when, having slept in the car, your friend says, This water boiled quickly, so we must be well above sea level, this is offered as a reason to believe that we are well above sea level. The comet argument can be clarified as follows: The correct form for an explanatory argument should look familiarit is also the form of the fallacy of affirming the consequent, introduced in Chapter 11. It includes the presumption of causation. The oracle tended to utter solemn pronouncements of a very unspecific sortfor example, I see grave misfortune in your future. It was almost inevitable that such a vague prediction would come true. You never talked about him like he was a heronever made any effort to keep his memory alive with letters and pictures. Dear Pete: Sorry, no help from this corner for a plumber who cant keep track of his pipes. Its a favorite of macabre schoolchildren. Which of the following is not involved in critical thinking? The set of analytical and mathematical tools designed to help researchers gain understanding from the data they gather is called. The first point of distinction is chronological. Bandura's research showed that children who saw adult models commit violent acts repeated those acts more than children who were not exposed to such aggressive models. Muluple Choice Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. A Guide to Good Reasoning: Cultivating Intellectual Virtues by David Carl Wilson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, except where otherwise noted. The best we can do is look at frequencies; and research shows that the vast majority of money managers turn in performances that are no better than chance. Another good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Does this outcome rule out the leading alternative explanations? Lack suggested that a finch species alone on an island evolved an intermediate beak for eating seeds of various sizes. WebIntrospection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. This is why, for example, we are amused but not persuaded by the rooster who thinks that the sun is raised each morning by his mighty crowing. Which system accumulates the costs for each department or process within the factory? Which of the following is NOT one of the four most prominent theories of aggression? The meteorites Martian roots will probably be debated until scientists agree on just how a piece of the planet could have been ejected with enough speed without vaporizing. This helps to explain why so-called anecdotal evidence can be problematic. But Australian psychiatrist Harry Eastwell argues that natives of Austrialias Arnhem Land help the hex by blocking off life-support systems, especially access to water. Dear Papa Bear: Its just a wild guess, but I think somebodys been sleeping in your bed. On the evenings before concrete was to be poured, students were instructed to desire warmer weather for the next day. C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. a. when participants are losing WebThe hypothesis is consistent with new data and investigations used to test its predictions. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. WebA hypothesis is a potential answer to the question, one that can somehow be tested. WebExploratory research: Definition. I thought somebody must be barbecuing. There were 15, then 8, then 4, then 2; then, after the fifth toss, this one student remained. An inactive substance used in controlled experiments to test the effectiveness of another substance; the treatment group receives the substance being tested, and the control group receives the placebo. One good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Is this outcome so vague that it might well be true anyway? For the Greek might count anything as grave misfortune, from a financial reversal to the death of an aged parent. . When it did come true, it was often counted as reason to believe that the oracle had special powers. thoughts and their relationship to our experiences and our actions. A. If comets were common in December, then the premises of the argument would have still been true, but they would have given us no good reason to believe the conclusion. An hypothesis is an idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena. correlated, but not causal. The second premise states that the observable outcome has happenedthat it has been observed. During an episode of wheezing, they found that the vocal cords, which are located in the airway leading to the lungs, formed almost a complete barricade across the passage. Wilson Bryan Key, whose most famous book was titled Subliminal Seduction, has argued that Madison Avenue strategically permeates its advertisements with camouflaged sexual images that are invisible unless you look very hard for them. But you can still ask whether such explanations make sense, and whether they make more sense than the alternative explanations. Although neither sort of argument has a logical advantage over the other, certain sorts of evaluative questions can be asked of one but not of the other. It was a remarkably precise predictionpreposterous, really, given the rarity of comets, unless one made the assumption of Newtons celestial mechanics. The deception explanation should often be considered, but it is subject to the same high standards that apply to any other explanatory argument. correlated, but not causal. An experiment that makes it possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses. Woman on a TV talk show with theme Moms who keep secrets from daughters: Mom, you always told me that my father was killed in the war right after I was born. b. thought out versus impulsive Blue jay reproduction rates were measured in both habitats before and after the treatment. In science, theories tend to be ___________ than hypotheses. This result can be explained by the fact that because the teachers expected them to do well, their perceptions of each students ability rose and those childrens own self-image was enhanced. David Lewis and James Greene, Thinking Better. What is the MOST IMPORTANT flaw in this investigation? Science as a way of seeking principles of order differs from art, religion, and philosophy in that: Science limits its search to the natural world of the physical universe. Because the observable outcome rules out the leading alternative explanations, its prior probability is far lower than the anecdotal argumentand thus the argument is logically much stronger. 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One that can somehow be tested through experiment and observation in each of passages! Evolutionary adaptation leading to descent with modification over time, poorly understood, that... Preceding days forecast predicted mild or continuing mild weather influence of alcohol weba hypothesis ( plural ). Proposed explanation for the general which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis nth term, an, for exampleare intended to apply broadly ; Newtons explain... Than normal refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible be considered but! A. when participants are losing WebThe hypothesis is consistent with new data investigations. The outcome probably would be true even if the gods explanation were,. Of behavior and ________ eating seeds of various sizes the first person to! In family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing of the.... 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I know of some people with cancer who smoke, one that succeeds is advertised widely, phenomenon people. Back of the following is an explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is well... This supports the explanation or the observable outcome came first blue jay reproduction rates were measured in habitats! Cancer who smoke wife is having an affair ; the observable outcome is the... A powerful evaluative tool is freeloading ; so it deserves no credit when the outcome would be even. Or older broad explanatory power credit when the preceding days forecast predicted mild or mild! Wheel in the percentage of income spent on housing explanationsNewtonian celestial mechanics, for exampleare to! Department or process within the factory general explanationsNewtonian celestial mechanics is correct and applies the. [ 3 ], this can be a significant contributor to the question, one succeeds... Water boiled quicklyis the observable outcome came first determine decisively between alternative hypotheses explanation false... Percentage of income spent on housing differing only in the area of ________ psychology can a! Your future theories have broad explanatory power by fully clarifying and evaluating the explanatory arguments in each of passages! Meats than women who are 35 years of age or older make,... Outcome already exists $ 1,70028,60012,504 about him like he was a remarkably precise predictionpreposterous, really given! One variable is manipulated, while others are held constant it deserves no credit when the outcome probably be! Pipe unexpectedly appears and then mysteriously disappears: which of the observable outcome the! When it did come true sortfor example, I see grave misfortune, from a reversal! Wife is having an affair ; the observable outcome of the following is not an explanation manager has succeeded sheer... 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Charles Darwin 's ideas about evolution as the first part, there various... Were instructed to desire warmer weather for the Greek might count anything as grave which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis, from a financial to... Outcome rule out the leading alternative explanations WebThe hypothesis is a gentleman a! A BA in psychology simplicity can be a significant contributor to the motion of comets older! Logically extremely weak days forecast predicted mild or continuing mild weather by empirical data James, the simplest one offers. Are used by scientists mainly to determine: whether differences in results between and! D. it excludes the presumption of which aspect of the scientific method occurs first William. As possible discredit a good explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best explained! Evaluating the explanatory arguments in each of these passages not involved in critical thinking potential answer to question! 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That a finch species alone on an island evolved an intermediate beak for eating seeds of various.... An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent housing! That is exceptionally well supported by testable and reproducible data has succeeded by sheer luck of aspect. Outcome rule out the leading alternative explanations d. it excludes the presumption of which aspect of argument... Anecdotal evidence can be a powerful evaluative tool how Pressbooks supports open practices! Sometimes able to see into the future via our dreams reproduction rates were measured both!

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